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There is only ONE Oklahoma
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Monday, November 12, 2007

Analysis of "Will OU pass Oregon" in the BCS

Assuming LSU, Oregon and OU win out, will OU pass Oregon.

Well, I went through the BCS numbers in detail and here is what I found (just skip to the end if you want the answer):

As you may or may not know, the BCS ranking is a simple average of the Harris, Coaches/USA Today, and Computer polls. Each of the 3 components is a percentage of points you have to total points available. So, if your team gets every first place vote, you have a 1.0000 for that poll.

Let's start with the human polls first. We have total points and number of first place votes, so need to see how each team is actually getting their votes. I need to make a couple of assumptions here, but I don't think they are that material.

1. LSU and Oregon are ranked in the top 3 by everybody in Harris.
2. LSU is ranked in the top 5 in Coaches by everybody, and Oregon is ranked in the top 4.
3. KU and OU are ranked in the top 5 by everyone in both polls.

That means, in Harris:

LSU has 73 first place, 20 second place, and 19 3rd place votes
Oregon has 22 first, 31 second, 59 third.
OU has 9 first, 30 second, 30 3rd, 42 fourth and 1 fifth
KU has 8 first, 31 second, 4 third, 13 fourth and 56 fifth.

In Coaches:

LSU has 35 first, 17 second, 4 third, 1 fourth, 4 fifth
Oregon has 13 first, 11 second, 26 third, 10 fourth
OU has 4 first, 20 second, 10 third, 10 fourth, 16 fifth
KU has 7 first, 12 second, 6 third, 8 fourth, 27 fifth

Now, lets assume that KU beats Mizzou, OU wins out, and OU beats KU in the Big XII championship game. How would voters now vote? I have assumed the following:

Harris:
1. OU gets all of KU's first place votes.
2. OU gets all of KU's second place votes.
3. Everyone keeps LSU in the same spot in voting.
4. OU gets half of Oregon's second place votes.
5. Oregon keeps all of their first place votes, and their losses on second place votes move to 3rd.
6. The rest of OU's votes are now 3rd (no more 4th or 5ths).

This seems pretty logical, and gives:

LSU: 0.9793
Oregon: 0.9411
OU: 0.9596

So OU ranked #2 in Harris.

For Coaches it is a bit more difficult, and clearly the voting is all over the place, as some coaches may vote to help their team (why not?).

Assumtions for Coaches:

1. LSU keeps it's 1st and 2nd place votes, and the 4ths and 5ths move to 3rd.
2. Oregon keeps all of it votes as it is.
3. OU gets's KU's 1st place votes, keeps it's 2nd place votes, and all 4ths and 5th's become 3rds.

That results in:

LSU: 0.978
Oregon: 0.938
OU: 0.948

So again, OU passes Oregon for #2 in Coaches.

Now to the computers.

LSU is #1 in 4 of the 6, and 2nd in those 2.
Oregon is 2nd in 2, and 3rd in 4
KU is #1 in 2, and has a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a 6th
OU has 3 7ths, 2 9ths, and 1 8th.

Now we need to assume something about other teams. Let's assume that OSU, ASU, WVa, all win out. Also, lets assume that the computers don't allow OU to leap frog any of those teams with a win over KU.

Then,

LSU #1 in all 6
Oregon #2 in 5, and #3 in 1 (behind OSU)
OU gets 3 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, and an 8th.

BCS works out as follows (harris, USA, computers, total average)

LSU 0.9793 0.978 1.000 0.9858
Oregon: 0.9411 0.938 0.9600 0.9464
OU: 0.9596 0.9480 0.8100 0.9059

LSU and Oregon play.

Now, let's assume that OSU, ASU lose, and that OU can jump up to 3rd in all of the computer polls.

We still lose out, with Oregon at 0.9464 and OU at 0.9425.

If; however, OU can get 2 #2s in the computer, and 3 #3s, then it plays out as:

Oregon 0.9430
OU 0.9459

So, in conclusion, it doesn't look like it would happen. But the only real way for it to happen is:

KU wins out until Champ game
OSU loses to Michigan
ASU loss would help as well
The voters really like OU over Oregon, so much so that they change the way they have been voting.

The other dynamic that could happen is Oregon voters switch their votes to LSU. The lead LSU has can't be surpassed by OU without an LSU loss, so voters switching to LSU over Oregon helps as it decreases the lead Oregon has on OU. Lackluster performances by Oregon and great performances by LSU (ugh!) might the the things to root for absent a loss by either.

The only way things could get better is if they announce Oregon as the #2 team first, so they think they're New Orleans bound, and then break their hearts when the rankings are "under review" and have Gordo announce that the ranking has been overturned, OU is #2 and going to the title game! I can always dream!

back to the season finale of Nascar later this week.

3 comments:

vroom said...

It's fun to read something other than the FranceCar Follies, thanks!

High Groover said...

Hey Lugnut! I could use some Lotto numbers for Saturday night!

Travis said...

As a former Michigander (East Lansing area) now attending OU, I am forced to say it...

"GO BLUE!!!"

ESPN had some commentary on today saying that if Kansas wins out, and Oregon stumbles (not loses, 'stumbles'), then they could play in New Orleans. Obviously (at least for me) that holds true for OU as well. Time will tell...