A (very) long statistical analysis of OU and Florida

Yes, I have been distracted from NASCAR over the past few weeks and after the new year I will offer my never ending opinions of the goings on with the sport and especially 'my driver' and the #19 GEM team. But it is not every day that your college football team makes it to a BCS champ game:


I know the prevailing wisdom seems to be that Florida is going to beat us 65-63, but I don't see it playing out that way. I have come to a different conclusion. One team may light up the scoreboard, but I don't think both teams will. I think it's either a blowout, or a very close game with a lower final score than people expect. The reason I believe this is OU and Florida's recipes for success are extremely similar. Dynamic offenses that are put in favorable positions by opportunistic defenses. Because I love my team, but more so because I'm a massive 'numbers cruncher', I've done some exhaustive investigative web-surfing to support this supposition. This is a very long post, and very stat-heavy, so go ahead and stop reading...right about....now.

An opportunistic defense creates turnovers and momentum-changing events like quarterback sacks and tackles for loss. I'll start there.

Turnover Margin

No surprise, Oklahoma and Florida are 1st and 2nd nationally in turnover margin. Oklahoma is +1.77 per game, Florida +1.69. This seems like a push, however if you dive a little deeper the statistics reveal a little more. Florida leads the nation in passes intercepted with 24. However, Sam Bradford has thrown just one interception since the Texas game, or one interception in his last 257 attempts. Tim Tebow has thrown 3 interceptions for the year on 258 attempts. It seems unlikely either team will gain an advantage in this department. OU may have an advantage in fumbles. We've recovered 17 fumbles on the year, while Florida has lost 8 fumbles. Conversely, Florida has only recovered 9 fumbles on the year, while OU has only lost two fumbles on the season. That in itself is amazing, and is the lowest total of any team in the country. The next lowest team has 4. For reference, OU has lost two fumbles on 1,036 plays for the season for an average of one fumble lost every 538 plays. Florida has lost 8 fumbles on the season on 800 plays for an average of one fumble lost every 100 plays. I would give OU a very, very slight advantage in the turnover department. If we can recover just one fumble in the game it may be the difference.
Verdict-Slight advantage to OU


Sacks/Tackles For Loss

OU is 3rd nationally with 42 quarterback sacks. Florida is 33rd with 32 quarterback sacks. OU averages a sack against the opposition once every 11.83 pass attempts. Florida gets a sack once every 12.57 pass attempts. Guess who numbers 1 and 2 are in sacks? Texas and TCU. In case you're wondering, 7 of the 11 sacks OU has allowed on the season were to Texas and TCU. We've faced 3 other teams on the season with more sacks than Florida: Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. Those 3 teams combined for a total of 2 sacks against us. OU has allowed a total of 11 quarterback sacks on the year which is 4th best statistically. Florida has allowed 16, which is 13th best. This is where it gets interesting though-OU allows a sack every 43.27pass attempts, Florida allows a sack every 18.68 pass attempts. Florida has also faced more defenses that are statistically weaker in quarterback sacks. I'm not sure how significant this will turn out to be, but it appears to be an advantage for OU

There is a pretty significant discrepancy in our advantage in tackles for loss. OU ranks 9th nationally with nearly 8 per game, Florida is 85th with just over 5 per game. Both teams are nearly identical in TFL allowed. OU 12th, Fla 14th, both allowing just over 4 per game.
Verdict-Advantage to OU

3rd down offense/defense

I believe this is one of the most overlooked stats in football. Converting 3rd downs offensively allows a team to sustain drives and retain momentum. Conversely, a defense's ability to stop the opposing team from converting 3rd downs kills momentum and gives the other team the ball back. Not surprisingly , OU and Florida both excel in each category.

OU is 7th nationally with a 3rd down conversion rate of 51.6%. Florida is 13th with a conversion rate of 49.3%. What's interesting is we've already faced 5 teams with a higher conversion rate than Florida. Texas-2nd 57.1%, Texas Tech-4th 54.5%, Mizzou-5th 54.4%, TCU-8th 51.5%, and Kansas 11th 50%.

Again, both teams are nearly identical in 3rd down defense. Florida is 15th nationally, allowing opposing offenses to convert 31.8% of the time. OU is 21st, allowing a 33.3 conversion rate. Something to consider about this statistic that lends itself in OU's favor-OU's defense has faced 5 of the top 11 offenses in converting 3rd downs. This would appear to be a good sign for us defensively. There's a common theme that manifests through these statistics-TCU and Cincinnati. These are very solid teams. TCU is 5th, Cincinnati is 6th in this category.
Verdict-Even


Defense

I'll attempt to dissect the defensive statistics a little now. FYI, I won't be breaking down the offensive numbers. Most of us know them anyway. Defense is supposedly an overwhelming advantage for Florida, but the statistics reveal some interesting things. I'll break this down in 3 categories-Rush defense, pass defense, and total defense.

Rush Defense

OU and Florida are nearly identical in rush defense. Florida ranks 16th nationally, OU ranks 18th. However, OU has a slight advantage in yards per carry allowed (OU 3.24-UF 3.33). Once again, we faced the top two defenses in these statistical categories this year: TCU and Texas. If you exclude quarterback sacks, we had identical yards per carry averages against Texas and TCU-2.43. What's encouraging is we're averaging 5.74 ypc since the Texas game. Florida averages 5.96 ypc on the year.
Verdict-Even

Pass Defense

This is where it supposedly gets ugly for us. A casual glance at the statistics would support this theory. OU ranks 99th at 253 ypg allowed. Fla ranks 19th at 174 ypg. However, once again, if you dive deeper there's more to the story...First off, a difference of only 79 ypg translates into a difference of 80 spots in the rankings. More interesting tidbits...OU has more pass attempts against than any other team in the nation (497). Florida averages 7 fewer pass attempts against its defense a game less than OU. OU's defense allows 12.01 ypc and 6.62 ypa. Florida allows 10.47 and 5.45. In pass efficiency defense Florida is 2nd nationally. One of the primary reasons for this is they lead the nation in passes intercepted. As discussed previously, you wouldn't think this would be a major factor against us. OU ranks 41st nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 1st in the Big 12. TCU ranks 4th nationally, and Cincinnati 28th. This area is obviously still an advantage for Fla, but its not as drastic as you would be led to believe.
Verdict-Advantage to Florida

Total Defense

The defensive rankings are really easy to be fooled by. It's been proclaimed over and over again by the media that the only team in the Big 12 that plays defense is Texas (50th in yards allowed nationally,). But Texas allows only 20 fewer ypg than we do. We're 2nd in the Big 12 in this category behind Texas, but only 65th nationally. The 3-game stretch of Texas, KU, and KSU earned us the reputation of having a terrible defense, and rightfully so. We allowed 438 yards to Texas, 491 to KU, and 550 to KSU . Now...can anyone tell me if anything might have happened in the Texas game that created this sudden inability to stop opposing offenses? A major upheaval in personnel, perhaps? Anyone?

Once the defense settled in and identified a suitable replacement for Reynolds we've allowed a respectable 350 ypg since the Kansas State game. For reference, that's against the 12th (Nebraska), 4th (Texas Tech), 7th (OSU), 6th (Mizzou), and 77th (damn you, TAMU!) ranked offenses nationally. We're not as bad defensively as everyone seems to think.

Florida allows 279 ypg, which is 9th nationally. They allow 4.4 yards per play on the season. OU allows 5.06 yards per play on the season. OU's defense has faced 922 plays this season, which is the 5th most of any team. Florida's defense has faced 826 plays on the season. Florida has played 4 teams this year that rank 97th or lower in total offense (!), not including a lower division team, The Citadel. The highest ranked offense they've played against this year is Georgia's, which ranks 21st. The second highest ranked offense they faced belonged to Ole Miss (37th), and we all know the result of that game. TCU is ranked 2nd in total defense, Cincinatti is 26th.

Just judging from the statistics I'm inclined to give the advantage to Florida, but not by a substantial margin.
Verdict-Slight advantage to Florida


Special Teams

This will be the last area I dissect. It's pretty bad...but maybe not as bad as you would think.

I keep hearing about how great Florida's special teams are, but the statistics I have don't back that up. I can't find statistics on blocked field goals/punts, which they may very well be proficient at. What I do have is a little surprising. We rank 107th nationally (not surprising) in kickoff return average defense with an average of 24.1 per return. Florida is not a whole let better though, they rank 90th with a 22.4 average. We're dead last out of 119 teams in kick-off touchdowns allowed (4). However, Florida has not ran a kickoff back for a touchdown this year. What's surprising is Florida's relative ineptness at returning kickoffs. You would think with all their (alleged) sub 4.3, Olympic team alternate sprinters they would be among the best in the country in this category. They rank 44th, with a 21.83 average. We rank 7th, with a 25.17 return average, which also surprised me.

They're better at punt returns, which may not benefit them significantly because we don't punt a lot. They're 8th nationally, with a 14.4 average and 2 td's. We're 70th nationally, with a 8.3 average and 1 touchdown. We're actually outstanding at punt return coverage, we've allowed a return on 9 punts for a total of 49 yards. Florida is equally impressive, allowing 63 yards on 13 returns for the season. Hopefully we won't have to punt the ball much, because we have the 5th worst average of all teams at 36.37 yards per punt. Fla averages 42.79 yards per punt. We have punted more than them, 51times for us, 42 for them.
Verdict-Advantage Florida, but not as bad as we thought

Final Analysis

Using all of this information, I'll go ahead and offer a prediction. I'll get to that in a minute. The statistics indicate a matchup between two very evenly matched teams. Some things I didn't include because it seemed like common sense, such as an OU advantage in total offense. What all the statistics reveal to me is if both teams play their A+ game, OU wins narrowly. However, both teams are so evenly matched and so similar in game plan that even a -1 in turnover differential could make all the difference. This is also with the assumption that OU's A+ team shows up. That is the key variable in the entire equation. What OU team shows up? Is it the team that went on the road to Stillwater and out dueled OSU's best team in a quarter-century, or is it the team that was by embarrassed in the Fiesta Bowl? That leads me to another troublesome observation...we've seen a team in the last year a lot like Florida...and that team was West Virginia. Except Florida has better athletes, and more of them. However, despite the media love affair with Tim Tebow I'm of the opinion he's less dangerous than Pat White. West Virginia probably had a superior running game to Florida, but Florida's offense is more diverse. Attempting to pick this game objectively I think it would be somewhat irresponsible to pick OU, given our recent history in bowl games. I won't make anyone happy with this, but if I'm picking with my head I'd be forced to pick Florida. But if this team plays like we all know its capable of, I do think we have the superior team and can therefore achieve victory.

THE DUST HAS SETTLED:

And we now have crowned a new College Football National Champion in one of the strangest years in recent memory. It is fitting that the National Champion sports a two-loss record this year. It simply puts an exclamation point on a season that opened with a D1AA beating a ‘top 5 team’, another mid major having a Cinderella season, and weekends where 7 or more top 10 ranked teams were upset.

But what I found very interesting that in such a crazy and entertaining year, the National Championship game’s TeVee ratings actually dropped over 17% from the previous year. How many times do we hear that Nascar TeVee ratings are down because people are ‘not happy’ with Nascar? But one aspect that these fans omit is that there has been a trend, especially over the past 5 years in ALL televised sports. That trend has been a decline in TeVee ratings. So are ALL sports fans getting frustrated with their perspective sports and making conscious decisions to not watch broadcasts? The simple answer is no.

So what (or who) is to blame?

In a nutshell, Sports related TeVee ratings are declining due to the multitude of gadgets and services sports fans have to entertain themselves. Whether it's downloading their favorite shows to their iPod, watching clips on their cell phones, scrolling through Web sites or tuning into a niche cable television show, finicky fans have more options. And maybe more importantly, these fans have an almost instant recall via such mediums like TiVO, YouTube, and Sports Center on ESPN. There simply is not the necessity to be forced to watch a broadcast ‘live’ now, for fear of missing something.

But it is not just Sports Broadcasts that are suffering. 15 or so years ago, the leading prime-time network program, ''Seinfeld,'' averaged a 20.4 rating; in 2003 the top show, ''C.S.I.,'' generated a 16.3, and last year ‘American Idol', the top rated prime time show, averaged a 17.3 rating, down from the previous year as well.

Will the Daytona 500 rating be in decline from previous years? The answer is probably, but that has little to do with the disgruntled fan.

ATTENTION NCAA FOOTBALL TEAMS NEEDING A LIFT!

Has your coach run off to another school? Have you suffered a disappointing loss? Or do you just need a happy ending to that Cinderella season? We can help!

YOU can be the next team to experience the uplifting, healing power of defeating "National Powerhouse" Oklahoma University on the national stage in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

We'll win our conference, and that, plus our name and storied tradition, will guarantee you underdog status. Our dull and uninspired play at game-time will make your emotion and intensity shine all the brighter.

Just ask Boise State and West Virginia about the exultation that will be yours! Just as we did for them, we will give YOUR program a memory it will cherish for years!!

The application period begins in September! But start your preparation NOW!
Dial 1 (800) BCS-BUST.

Seriously though: Five ways OU beat themselves

1. Stoops calls destroy momentum. When OU pulled it to 20-15, OU was in control of the game. There was very little up-side to going for two points. And much less to going for the onside kick. That sequence was the back-breaker IMHO. Going for it on 4th down in the first half, in our own territory was questionable, at best.

2. Key missing players: Malcolm Kelly, Auston English (played very little due to flu, leg, etc.), Demarcus Granger, Lendy Holmes, Reggie Smith. This is a huge factor. The late losses of Kelly, and especially Granger's stupidity, had to contribute to the lack of fire we showed in the first half.

3. Penalties. Penalties. Penalties.. OU shot ourselves in the foot over and over and over.

4. Beaten on the edges. Very surprising to see Loadholt getting routinely abused like that. It looked like something was wrong with him. He was bending at waste and reaching all night.

5. Lack of killer instinct. Despite pyss poor play in the first half, OU STILL had the ball three times near or in the red zone, only to emerge with a paltry two field goals.

My last bytch-and-moan comment: I absolutely HATE giving this type of ammunition to the press: four BCS losses in a row. Pardon me while I gnaw my own arm to a nub at the elbow.

How many days till Daytona?

Analysis of "Will OU pass Oregon" in the BCS

Assuming LSU, Oregon and OU win out, will OU pass Oregon.

Well, I went through the BCS numbers in detail and here is what I found (just skip to the end if you want the answer):

As you may or may not know, the BCS ranking is a simple average of the Harris, Coaches/USA Today, and Computer polls. Each of the 3 components is a percentage of points you have to total points available. So, if your team gets every first place vote, you have a 1.0000 for that poll.

Let's start with the human polls first. We have total points and number of first place votes, so need to see how each team is actually getting their votes. I need to make a couple of assumptions here, but I don't think they are that material.

1. LSU and Oregon are ranked in the top 3 by everybody in Harris.
2. LSU is ranked in the top 5 in Coaches by everybody, and Oregon is ranked in the top 4.
3. KU and OU are ranked in the top 5 by everyone in both polls.

That means, in Harris:

LSU has 73 first place, 20 second place, and 19 3rd place votes
Oregon has 22 first, 31 second, 59 third.
OU has 9 first, 30 second, 30 3rd, 42 fourth and 1 fifth
KU has 8 first, 31 second, 4 third, 13 fourth and 56 fifth.

In Coaches:

LSU has 35 first, 17 second, 4 third, 1 fourth, 4 fifth
Oregon has 13 first, 11 second, 26 third, 10 fourth
OU has 4 first, 20 second, 10 third, 10 fourth, 16 fifth
KU has 7 first, 12 second, 6 third, 8 fourth, 27 fifth

Now, lets assume that KU beats Mizzou, OU wins out, and OU beats KU in the Big XII championship game. How would voters now vote? I have assumed the following:

Harris:
1. OU gets all of KU's first place votes.
2. OU gets all of KU's second place votes.
3. Everyone keeps LSU in the same spot in voting.
4. OU gets half of Oregon's second place votes.
5. Oregon keeps all of their first place votes, and their losses on second place votes move to 3rd.
6. The rest of OU's votes are now 3rd (no more 4th or 5ths).

This seems pretty logical, and gives:

LSU: 0.9793
Oregon: 0.9411
OU: 0.9596

So OU ranked #2 in Harris.

For Coaches it is a bit more difficult, and clearly the voting is all over the place, as some coaches may vote to help their team (why not?).

Assumtions for Coaches:

1. LSU keeps it's 1st and 2nd place votes, and the 4ths and 5ths move to 3rd.
2. Oregon keeps all of it votes as it is.
3. OU gets's KU's 1st place votes, keeps it's 2nd place votes, and all 4ths and 5th's become 3rds.

That results in:

LSU: 0.978
Oregon: 0.938
OU: 0.948

So again, OU passes Oregon for #2 in Coaches.

Now to the computers.

LSU is #1 in 4 of the 6, and 2nd in those 2.
Oregon is 2nd in 2, and 3rd in 4
KU is #1 in 2, and has a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a 6th
OU has 3 7ths, 2 9ths, and 1 8th.

Now we need to assume something about other teams. Let's assume that OSU, ASU, WVa, all win out. Also, lets assume that the computers don't allow OU to leap frog any of those teams with a win over KU.

Then,

LSU #1 in all 6
Oregon #2 in 5, and #3 in 1 (behind OSU)
OU gets 3 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, and an 8th.

BCS works out as follows (harris, USA, computers, total average)

LSU 0.9793 0.978 1.000 0.9858
Oregon: 0.9411 0.938 0.9600 0.9464
OU: 0.9596 0.9480 0.8100 0.9059

LSU and Oregon play.

Now, let's assume that OSU, ASU lose, and that OU can jump up to 3rd in all of the computer polls.

We still lose out, with Oregon at 0.9464 and OU at 0.9425.

If; however, OU can get 2 #2s in the computer, and 3 #3s, then it plays out as:

Oregon 0.9430
OU 0.9459

So, in conclusion, it doesn't look like it would happen. But the only real way for it to happen is:

KU wins out until Champ game
OSU loses to Michigan
ASU loss would help as well
The voters really like OU over Oregon, so much so that they change the way they have been voting.

The other dynamic that could happen is Oregon voters switch their votes to LSU. The lead LSU has can't be surpassed by OU without an LSU loss, so voters switching to LSU over Oregon helps as it decreases the lead Oregon has on OU. Lackluster performances by Oregon and great performances by LSU (ugh!) might the the things to root for absent a loss by either.

The only way things could get better is if they announce Oregon as the #2 team first, so they think they're New Orleans bound, and then break their hearts when the rankings are "under review" and have Gordo announce that the ranking has been overturned, OU is #2 and going to the title game! I can always dream!

back to the season finale of Nascar later this week.

Dizzy Desmond and bad reporting

I received a couple of Emails concerning the 'YouTube' clip posted yesterday of ESPN Analyst, Desmond Howard's comments concerning his 'most intriguing bowl match-up' and from the emails they didn't understand what was wrong with his comments.

So ESPN has a special broadcast covering the upcoming bowl season, and 5 or so of their 'experts' are given approximately 30 second to give their take. Howard decides that his favorite match-up is the Holiday Bowl. (a match-up between Pac 10 University California and Big 12 University Texas A&M) How ever Howard states that the match-up is between 'Cal and Texas'. Now that 'mistake' is understandable on the surface (much like a play by play announcer calling a player by the wrong name, or in Nascar, calling out the wrong car). Those things can happen.

But then Howard goes into detail of individual TEXAS players and how they would match up against the CAL team. He clearly has not just 'mis-spoke', he has simply not done his homework. The other glaring problem with this incident is that ESPN allowed this to happen TWICE! Once before the game, and the other during the halftime show. Not once did any of the ESPN producers or on air Analysts attempt to correct Howard.

Howard, the former Heisman Trophy winner, apologized for the gaffe Wednesday evening on ESPN's SportsCenter. Howard was already scheduled to appear on the Budweiser Hot Seat segment of the show, a network spokesman said. Howard said he "mis-poke." Regardless of which team from Texas that Cal was playing, he added, he was still picking the Bears to win. (like that justifies anything)

And like i mentioned yesterday, this is the network that is going to 'save' the Nascar coverage next year.
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The rumor that just wont go away:

Now first off, I pretty much fully expect Ricky Rudd to be piloting one of the RYR cars next season in some capacity. However, the rumors that just won't go away are simply amazing, and frankly, I blame the Nascar Press for their 'bad reporting'.

When I look at coverage of other sports/entertainment/politics, what I see is a more in depth and complete coverage then what we see in Nascar. For example:

from Jayski:
Rudd/Gilliland tested for RYR? been told that David Gilliland and Ricky Rudd tested the COT [Car of Tomorrow] last week at Greenville-Pickens Speedway in Greenville, SC for Robert Yates Racing. Gilliland is, of course, the driver of RYR's #38 M&M's Ford and Rudd is being heavily rumored to be taking over the #88 Ford [Snickers? renumbered to #28?] in 2007.(12-21-2006)

Just how can two teams test at a track and no Nascar reporter 1) knows about it 2) be there in an attempt for an interview 3) get photographs. 4) at the very least confirm just which teams were actually testing, and who was behind the wheel

Lee Spencer has made an (unconfirmed) email claim that 'Ricky has been seen at RYR getting fitted for fire-suits'. Now I am not doubting this claim, but if I was trying to get the 'scoop', how difficult would it be to 'camp out' and capture of a glimpse of Ricky's comings and goings at the Moorseville shop. It has been a couple of years since I visited RYR's multi team shop, but if I remember correctly, it was in an industial park with a single access to the main road. Not that hard for a reporter to validate some of these 'rumors'.

Lets put all of this into a bit of perspective. The University of Alabama is searching for a head football coach. something that has just about as much impact as a driver for RYR in terms of contributions to their respective sports. There are reporters that are tracking University leased airplanes, and when they are stopped for an amount of time need for an 'interview', those reporters are there trying to find out just who is being interviewed and are there on the spot.

We see this same type of passion in other sports as well, especially when 'free agents' are shopping themselves around to other teams.

Why do they do it? Because it add credibility to their 'rumors', and they truly are aggressive and getting the scoop. Not simply waiting for an announcement. After all, 'good reporting' is getting the news worthy stories before they are stories.

Nascar to lose it's Busch

Faster than you can say 'Jayski', the naysayers filled many message boards and air waves spouting of how 'Nascar had once again run off one of their traditional sponsors for the sake of money'. But hearing spokesmen from both Anheuser-Busch and Nascar I think those naysayers could be as far from the truth as possible.

While the Beer Company has been the series sponsor (in one form or another) since 1982, the company's 'Nascar presence' is still one of the most (if not the most) recognised brand name in the sport, and that is not going to change at all. The #8 car will still get 'tier one' sponsorship dollars, the pole award will still be called the 'Bud Pole Award', and the 'Bud Shoot-out' will not change.

So why is Busch really pulling out of the series sponsorship when it's contract comes due after the '07 season? That answer is pretty simple, and has little to do with Dollars. Anheuser-Busch can afford to sponsor just about any (and they practically have their hand in almost every sporting event in terms of sponsorship in one way or another) sporting event it chooses, and the amount of dollars from within that sponsorship. But the main problem I see with the Busch series sponsorship is 'redundancy'. Especially with all the other sponsorship and visibility they have in the Cup series. For the most part, the target market for 'Saturday' racing, and the same as 'Sunday' racing. There is/was/will be no real reason to saturate that market, as the benefits of doing that is limited.

Of course the naysayers are claiming this all revolves around the 'Nascar greed', but think about this. The '08 series sponsorship is being estimated at a worth of around 30 to 35 million dollars a season. Not chump changes by any means. But what struck me and the naysayers will ignore this, is that estimation is around THREE TIMES what Anheuser-Busch is currently paying Nascar for the series sponsorship. For the price of 2nd tier car sponsorship, Anheuser-Busch was getting their name plastered on the TeVee, signage, logos hundreds of times each Satuday. Is it fair to say that Nascar has actually short changed themselves, and undersold their product for the past decade or so and that Anheuser-Busch has been given a 'screamin' deal and now the 'deal' is coming to a close?

The list of potential sponsors seems to be taking a life of it's own and grows by the day. And frankly, it is not the 'Nascar greed' that drives this bus, but the vision to see that in order to keep ticket prices down, prize money up and the best product available, this type of business model must be achieved.

Jerry Jones is building a 'billion dollar' stadium, not in Dallas, but in Arlington and do you honestly think even 50% of this building cost is going to come out of his pockets? (and they are deep pockets too) Of course not, naming rights will not only be sold for the over-all stadium itself, but every concourse, suite level, vending area, mall, bathroom, meeting room, convention hall and scoreboard (and probably more) will be sold in corporate sponsorship to the highest bidder. It is not greed, it is simply being smart.

No matter what the sponsorship truly will be in '08, why don't we just call it what it is......'Cup Lite'.
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Are 'suicide watches' needed for Ricky Rudd fans?

Well it hasn't been that bad, but what was a weekend of 'rejoicing' is starting to turn into anxiety for the Rudd faithful. Could 'Nascar's worst kept secret' actually taking a different turn when a certain Craftsman Truck Driver was given his 'walking papers', not due to performance, but due to lack of sponsorship?

Perhaps that 'bottom of the barrel' I spoke of earlier last week, just got filled a bit with a 4thCTS division driver. Someone who is willing to 'commit' to the sponsor and their weekly appearance needs and more importantly, someone who wants to race 'full time'.

Of course not the credentials of a Driver like Ricky Rudd, but David Starr also carries a lot less 'baggage' with him, something that RYR doesn't need in their rebuilding process.

After all, is this 'theory' any less credible than RR going back to RYR and running the #28? (seems only Lee Spencer really knows that answer) If you would have told me that a year or so ago, I would have pointed you to this picture....

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and Lastly
And this Network is going to 'save' Nascar?

Last night, before their first bowl broadcast of the season, ESPN and their 'experts' dedicated an hour long pre-bowl special. Now making a 'mistake' on the air is one thing, but have over 3 weeks to prepare for this show and doing this is simply inexcusable.

You decide:


homework! just do it!

Is this the best ESPN can offer? What is worse about all of this, is that Howard did this more than once. (before the game, and during the halftime). I can just hear it now some Sunday morning during one of the ESPN Nascar Broadcasts: "Tony Stewart, driver of the #29, M&Ms Toyota, has a great chance to win this week's Memorial Day race at the Indy 500."

And some think that ESPN will 'save' the Nascar Broadcasts.