Not even sure what to say...

But here goes...

I don't even have the words to truly convey how I feel right now. I am ticked off, upset, disappointed, and frustrated as hell about this loss.

BUT...

I am proud of our team. I am proud of our coaches. We went into the game and played it well-prepared and ready to play. OU didn't lay down and die. OU didn't take Florida lightly. It was a well-fought game between two, of what I feel, are STILL the best 2 teams in the country. Unfortunately, we came out on the wrong side of the W/L column. Florida beat us. No excuses. If they are better than us, they are not better by much. It's no consolation, I know, but it is what it is. So, I extend my congrats to the Gators and their fans (and they were very gracious before, during and after the game, unlike LSU fans from 2004). And many came up after the game when we were leaving Dolphin Stadium (talk about a great venue to watch football) and were honest enough with themselves to thank their lucky stars that they stopped us inside the 10 yard line twice. Otherwise, we all might be feeling a little bit better right now by celebrating our 8th NC.

I don't know what else to say. But again, I'm proud of our team and of our coaching staff. I'll take Stoops and his crew of coaches, along with the magnitude of the success that he has brought back to Norman any day, and EVERY day! Anyway, that's all from me for now, we are off for one last day on the beach and some Florida sunshine.

Again, congrats to the Gators. They were better last night.

Frustrated and Crushed but STILL Proud,
Okla21fan

What I have learned from Florida sports radio this morning

gunna try blogging via the greatness of the blackberry, hope the formating works.



live from south beach (and when did southbeach go topless?)

here is what the guys on 790theTicket have to say:

florida's defense will shut down oklahoma.
tim tebow is god and there is no way oklahoma can stop this offense.

some think Utah is more deserving and may be a better match up.

the big 12 is mediocre as usual...the bowl season proved that.

they have been predicting scores of 49-24, 49-17, 35-14, 55-21 today...nobody and I mean nobody has picked Oklahoma
oklahoma has no shot at staying in this game...they have never faced the speed like this.

urban meyer will out coach bob stoops.

dominique franks is an idiot...he basically gave oklahoma the kiss of death by talking trash about tim tebow



I AM LOVING EVERY MINUTE OF IT! BOOMER!

btw, side note: sooner fans are everywhere in south Beach, maybe a 4 to 1 ratio. i guess the gator fans are driving down as we speak. off to do some tailgating and to the stadium. see ya later alligator!

My fun at the DFW airport this afternoon

So I had to get to the airport at DFW this afternoon around noonish to catch the flight for the 'big game' in Miami Thursday night. I KNEW the place would be crawling with horns, so I made sure to wear an OU sweatshirt and cap...shorts and flip flops and just a general happy feeling and pride for the Sooners.

Not TWO seconds after checking my bags at the curbside check in, out comes, "45-35!!!" A horn fan yells while waiting to catch the shuttle. I quietly speak back, "How'd that work out for ya?" I then pulled out my Blackberry and say, "Give me your address...I'll send you a post card from South Beach!!" He turned and walked away.

Then, while I stood in line to check in, Texas fans double taking all over the place...hundreds of them...completely disgusted to see me. A fresh reminder of their party being over and the REAL party getting started.

So then I am about to go through security and four Texas fans...all men...were right behind me. A lady walking beside me and in a business suit told me I was awfully brave to be wearing that today. I told her, "Brave? I'm just heading to Miami for the national championship!"

So then we are standing in line and I was trying to call my good friend, 'Benny the Sooner fan', to tell him about the fun I was having. Since I knew he was at work and wasn't flying out till Wed. I just acted like he was on the phone.

"HEY, MAN! WHAT TIME DOES YOUR FLIGHT GET TO MIAMI??"

"OH, YEAH! FIRST ROUND AT THE CLEVELANDER IS ON ME!!"

"YEAH, THEY BLEW THEIR SHOT LAST NIGHT!!"

"OH, THE BEACH IS GONNA BE AWESOME! SEE YOU AT THE FOUNTAIN BLUE!!"

If looks could kill!

We may get drilled Thursday night, but having a little fun at the expense of a Horn fan is always priceless. We board in 10 minutes, BOOMER SOONER!!

Time to feed that monster! See ya in a few days.

Buenvenidos a Miami!!!!!

A few things we, as Sooner fans, should know...

...about the Florida Gators. Having the benefit of CBSC (the college cable channel for CBS and hence, the SEC) and DVR, I have now seen multiple Gator games on tape. The first thing I have to say is, wow. They are damn good. Their O is multiple and dangerous, their D is fast, aggressive, and smart, and their special teams are special (to the tune of blocking 8 kicks this year, returning 2 punts for TD, and hitting 75/76 XP and 11/12 FG).

Things most of us already know:

Tebow is very athletic and very accurate, which could give us serious fits. He runs very well when he needs to, can hit most throws with ease, and when he's on fire, he will tear any D apart. He is like Zac Robinson in a lot of ways (remember the number of 'dead to rights' moments we had him in OU-OSU?) but better.

The top three options at RB for UF are not only fast, but very quick, can find the hole quickly, make a quick cut, a move, and be off to the races. That goes for Rainey, Demps, and Harvin. They are fast, to be sure, but that only counts after you make the first and second level miss, and they do that at least as well as any running back we have faced. All three of them.

Brandon Spikes is the real deal at LB. He is among the best LBs I have seen this year on tape. He plays very fast, has great instincts, and is dangerous for passers across the middle (4 INT, 2 returned for TD). He was absolutely brilliant against LSU. None of their other LBs (They've started 5 at the Will and Sam combined over the year) are much to write home about, but they are good.

Things most of us don't know:

Their front four are very, very good. Maybe the best we've faced. Their rotation is awesome. Dunlap isn't even a starter all the time, but he is a headhunter (12 TFL, 9 Sack). Cunningham and Trattou are the listed starters, and they are very, very good. Very much like Beal and Alexander in our last few games. Their interior is stout. Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh allow the ends to have some freedom. Sanders was the one that recovered that fumble against UGA and broke loose for 20 yards to set the score up (very athletic move for a 300 pound man).

Their secondary is among the best we've seen, again, maybe THE best. Black is a Ballhawk and so is Wright. Black leads the SEC in picks with 6 and has 2 TDs. Haden and Jenkins are lockdown cover corners. Both have three picks.

Their O-Line is big, agile, and strong. They average about 312. The Pouncey twins are damn good, and they're not even the best blockers on the team. Phil Trautwein probably takes that honor (although it's close). These guys grade out very high and pancake the hell out of D-Lines.

So... All things considered, we've got our work cut out for us. Is it NASCAR season yet??? I hope not.

A (very) long statistical analysis of OU and Florida

Yes, I have been distracted from NASCAR over the past few weeks and after the new year I will offer my never ending opinions of the goings on with the sport and especially 'my driver' and the #19 GEM team. But it is not every day that your college football team makes it to a BCS champ game:


I know the prevailing wisdom seems to be that Florida is going to beat us 65-63, but I don't see it playing out that way. I have come to a different conclusion. One team may light up the scoreboard, but I don't think both teams will. I think it's either a blowout, or a very close game with a lower final score than people expect. The reason I believe this is OU and Florida's recipes for success are extremely similar. Dynamic offenses that are put in favorable positions by opportunistic defenses. Because I love my team, but more so because I'm a massive 'numbers cruncher', I've done some exhaustive investigative web-surfing to support this supposition. This is a very long post, and very stat-heavy, so go ahead and stop reading...right about....now.

An opportunistic defense creates turnovers and momentum-changing events like quarterback sacks and tackles for loss. I'll start there.

Turnover Margin

No surprise, Oklahoma and Florida are 1st and 2nd nationally in turnover margin. Oklahoma is +1.77 per game, Florida +1.69. This seems like a push, however if you dive a little deeper the statistics reveal a little more. Florida leads the nation in passes intercepted with 24. However, Sam Bradford has thrown just one interception since the Texas game, or one interception in his last 257 attempts. Tim Tebow has thrown 3 interceptions for the year on 258 attempts. It seems unlikely either team will gain an advantage in this department. OU may have an advantage in fumbles. We've recovered 17 fumbles on the year, while Florida has lost 8 fumbles. Conversely, Florida has only recovered 9 fumbles on the year, while OU has only lost two fumbles on the season. That in itself is amazing, and is the lowest total of any team in the country. The next lowest team has 4. For reference, OU has lost two fumbles on 1,036 plays for the season for an average of one fumble lost every 538 plays. Florida has lost 8 fumbles on the season on 800 plays for an average of one fumble lost every 100 plays. I would give OU a very, very slight advantage in the turnover department. If we can recover just one fumble in the game it may be the difference.
Verdict-Slight advantage to OU


Sacks/Tackles For Loss

OU is 3rd nationally with 42 quarterback sacks. Florida is 33rd with 32 quarterback sacks. OU averages a sack against the opposition once every 11.83 pass attempts. Florida gets a sack once every 12.57 pass attempts. Guess who numbers 1 and 2 are in sacks? Texas and TCU. In case you're wondering, 7 of the 11 sacks OU has allowed on the season were to Texas and TCU. We've faced 3 other teams on the season with more sacks than Florida: Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. Those 3 teams combined for a total of 2 sacks against us. OU has allowed a total of 11 quarterback sacks on the year which is 4th best statistically. Florida has allowed 16, which is 13th best. This is where it gets interesting though-OU allows a sack every 43.27pass attempts, Florida allows a sack every 18.68 pass attempts. Florida has also faced more defenses that are statistically weaker in quarterback sacks. I'm not sure how significant this will turn out to be, but it appears to be an advantage for OU

There is a pretty significant discrepancy in our advantage in tackles for loss. OU ranks 9th nationally with nearly 8 per game, Florida is 85th with just over 5 per game. Both teams are nearly identical in TFL allowed. OU 12th, Fla 14th, both allowing just over 4 per game.
Verdict-Advantage to OU

3rd down offense/defense

I believe this is one of the most overlooked stats in football. Converting 3rd downs offensively allows a team to sustain drives and retain momentum. Conversely, a defense's ability to stop the opposing team from converting 3rd downs kills momentum and gives the other team the ball back. Not surprisingly , OU and Florida both excel in each category.

OU is 7th nationally with a 3rd down conversion rate of 51.6%. Florida is 13th with a conversion rate of 49.3%. What's interesting is we've already faced 5 teams with a higher conversion rate than Florida. Texas-2nd 57.1%, Texas Tech-4th 54.5%, Mizzou-5th 54.4%, TCU-8th 51.5%, and Kansas 11th 50%.

Again, both teams are nearly identical in 3rd down defense. Florida is 15th nationally, allowing opposing offenses to convert 31.8% of the time. OU is 21st, allowing a 33.3 conversion rate. Something to consider about this statistic that lends itself in OU's favor-OU's defense has faced 5 of the top 11 offenses in converting 3rd downs. This would appear to be a good sign for us defensively. There's a common theme that manifests through these statistics-TCU and Cincinnati. These are very solid teams. TCU is 5th, Cincinnati is 6th in this category.
Verdict-Even


Defense

I'll attempt to dissect the defensive statistics a little now. FYI, I won't be breaking down the offensive numbers. Most of us know them anyway. Defense is supposedly an overwhelming advantage for Florida, but the statistics reveal some interesting things. I'll break this down in 3 categories-Rush defense, pass defense, and total defense.

Rush Defense

OU and Florida are nearly identical in rush defense. Florida ranks 16th nationally, OU ranks 18th. However, OU has a slight advantage in yards per carry allowed (OU 3.24-UF 3.33). Once again, we faced the top two defenses in these statistical categories this year: TCU and Texas. If you exclude quarterback sacks, we had identical yards per carry averages against Texas and TCU-2.43. What's encouraging is we're averaging 5.74 ypc since the Texas game. Florida averages 5.96 ypc on the year.
Verdict-Even

Pass Defense

This is where it supposedly gets ugly for us. A casual glance at the statistics would support this theory. OU ranks 99th at 253 ypg allowed. Fla ranks 19th at 174 ypg. However, once again, if you dive deeper there's more to the story...First off, a difference of only 79 ypg translates into a difference of 80 spots in the rankings. More interesting tidbits...OU has more pass attempts against than any other team in the nation (497). Florida averages 7 fewer pass attempts against its defense a game less than OU. OU's defense allows 12.01 ypc and 6.62 ypa. Florida allows 10.47 and 5.45. In pass efficiency defense Florida is 2nd nationally. One of the primary reasons for this is they lead the nation in passes intercepted. As discussed previously, you wouldn't think this would be a major factor against us. OU ranks 41st nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 1st in the Big 12. TCU ranks 4th nationally, and Cincinnati 28th. This area is obviously still an advantage for Fla, but its not as drastic as you would be led to believe.
Verdict-Advantage to Florida

Total Defense

The defensive rankings are really easy to be fooled by. It's been proclaimed over and over again by the media that the only team in the Big 12 that plays defense is Texas (50th in yards allowed nationally,). But Texas allows only 20 fewer ypg than we do. We're 2nd in the Big 12 in this category behind Texas, but only 65th nationally. The 3-game stretch of Texas, KU, and KSU earned us the reputation of having a terrible defense, and rightfully so. We allowed 438 yards to Texas, 491 to KU, and 550 to KSU . Now...can anyone tell me if anything might have happened in the Texas game that created this sudden inability to stop opposing offenses? A major upheaval in personnel, perhaps? Anyone?

Once the defense settled in and identified a suitable replacement for Reynolds we've allowed a respectable 350 ypg since the Kansas State game. For reference, that's against the 12th (Nebraska), 4th (Texas Tech), 7th (OSU), 6th (Mizzou), and 77th (damn you, TAMU!) ranked offenses nationally. We're not as bad defensively as everyone seems to think.

Florida allows 279 ypg, which is 9th nationally. They allow 4.4 yards per play on the season. OU allows 5.06 yards per play on the season. OU's defense has faced 922 plays this season, which is the 5th most of any team. Florida's defense has faced 826 plays on the season. Florida has played 4 teams this year that rank 97th or lower in total offense (!), not including a lower division team, The Citadel. The highest ranked offense they've played against this year is Georgia's, which ranks 21st. The second highest ranked offense they faced belonged to Ole Miss (37th), and we all know the result of that game. TCU is ranked 2nd in total defense, Cincinatti is 26th.

Just judging from the statistics I'm inclined to give the advantage to Florida, but not by a substantial margin.
Verdict-Slight advantage to Florida


Special Teams

This will be the last area I dissect. It's pretty bad...but maybe not as bad as you would think.

I keep hearing about how great Florida's special teams are, but the statistics I have don't back that up. I can't find statistics on blocked field goals/punts, which they may very well be proficient at. What I do have is a little surprising. We rank 107th nationally (not surprising) in kickoff return average defense with an average of 24.1 per return. Florida is not a whole let better though, they rank 90th with a 22.4 average. We're dead last out of 119 teams in kick-off touchdowns allowed (4). However, Florida has not ran a kickoff back for a touchdown this year. What's surprising is Florida's relative ineptness at returning kickoffs. You would think with all their (alleged) sub 4.3, Olympic team alternate sprinters they would be among the best in the country in this category. They rank 44th, with a 21.83 average. We rank 7th, with a 25.17 return average, which also surprised me.

They're better at punt returns, which may not benefit them significantly because we don't punt a lot. They're 8th nationally, with a 14.4 average and 2 td's. We're 70th nationally, with a 8.3 average and 1 touchdown. We're actually outstanding at punt return coverage, we've allowed a return on 9 punts for a total of 49 yards. Florida is equally impressive, allowing 63 yards on 13 returns for the season. Hopefully we won't have to punt the ball much, because we have the 5th worst average of all teams at 36.37 yards per punt. Fla averages 42.79 yards per punt. We have punted more than them, 51times for us, 42 for them.
Verdict-Advantage Florida, but not as bad as we thought

Final Analysis

Using all of this information, I'll go ahead and offer a prediction. I'll get to that in a minute. The statistics indicate a matchup between two very evenly matched teams. Some things I didn't include because it seemed like common sense, such as an OU advantage in total offense. What all the statistics reveal to me is if both teams play their A+ game, OU wins narrowly. However, both teams are so evenly matched and so similar in game plan that even a -1 in turnover differential could make all the difference. This is also with the assumption that OU's A+ team shows up. That is the key variable in the entire equation. What OU team shows up? Is it the team that went on the road to Stillwater and out dueled OSU's best team in a quarter-century, or is it the team that was by embarrassed in the Fiesta Bowl? That leads me to another troublesome observation...we've seen a team in the last year a lot like Florida...and that team was West Virginia. Except Florida has better athletes, and more of them. However, despite the media love affair with Tim Tebow I'm of the opinion he's less dangerous than Pat White. West Virginia probably had a superior running game to Florida, but Florida's offense is more diverse. Attempting to pick this game objectively I think it would be somewhat irresponsible to pick OU, given our recent history in bowl games. I won't make anyone happy with this, but if I'm picking with my head I'd be forced to pick Florida. But if this team plays like we all know its capable of, I do think we have the superior team and can therefore achieve victory.

All roads in the Big 12 South lead to.........

Three teams tied for the Big 12 South Division Championship in 2008. Shiny, new trophies now reside in Norman, Austin and Lubbock. Lubbock? Yes Lubbock, where Texas Tech claims just as much of the crown as Oklahoma and Texas. All are 7-1.

You remember Texas Tech. After 10 games and back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and Texas, the Red Raiders were 10-0 and ranked No. 2 in the nation. The college football world was all awash with Tech's high-powered offense and obviously improved defense, and for good reason.

Then OU happened. Tech ran into a buzz saw on Owen Field and lost by 44 points. Mike Leach's program went from belle of the ball to the alternate at an eight-year-old's birthday party. Talk of Tech vanished faster than Michael Crabtree's short jaunt into the end zone, and the reasons for that aren't pretty.

Yet call up Big12Sports.com and there Tech remains, tied atop the Big 12 South and part of this triangle that has everybody's diastolic number well north of 100. PR campaigns aside, Tech is and must be part of the discussion. Tech is just as tied as Oklahoma and Texas.

Ties in sports were made to be broken, NFL games and at least one past MLB All-Star game notwithstanding. When available, the best way to break ties is through head to head match-ups although a quick look through the NCAA basketball bracket will reveal teams in the tourney that were beaten by teams that were left out. Still, head-to-head works pretty well until three teams tie, and each of the teams can claim a victory over one of the other three, but not both.

So here we sit, trying to find a South team to go to Kansas City for the Big 12 title game, and staring squarely into the eyes of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). Let's talk about the BCS as a tie-breaker.

You can hate the BCS if you choose and Lord knows a lot of people do. But the fact remains that the BCS is the system we use to determine the participants for the national championship game and the most lucrative bowls.

When each college football season commences, the six BCS conferences have two clearly defined goals: 1) Get two teams into BCS games and, 2) Get one of the teams into the national championship game.

And that is why the Big 12 Conference implemented a tie-breaker plank that includes the BCS. Some want to argue that it doesn't belong, but like most arguments against the BCS or even a playoff, it is impossible to look at the circumstances in any one particular year, and think that a remedy for this season would necessarily work in subsequent years. Here's why.

Let's say that OU, UT and TTU all were tied just as they are now, but that instead of OU and UT holding down the Nos. 2 and 3 spots in the BCS they held down Nos. 2 and 4, respectively, with USC sitting at No. 3.

Now, if you're the Big 12 and you're in that scenario, which tie-breaker makes the most sense? Do you want to dislodge Oklahoma and forfeit a potential spot in the national title game? Of course not.

But ignoring precedent we're now getting a plethora of other tie-breaking suggestions, including one that recommends a point differential. For Heaven's sake, in the attempt to perfect a system let's not forfeit sportsmanship.

Remember the fallout from Oklahoma's 77-0 win a few years ago. What if that score had been 90-0 in the interest of breaking a tie? Think for a moment about the ugliness of a road team, already up by four or five touchdowns, punching in another as time expires.

And what about teams that win with defense rather than a high-powered offense. Is 60-20 more valuable than 35-0? I guess a point differential could be capped ala the NFL, but in college ball would that really solve anything?

Question the BCS all you want, but as long as the BCS is here, you can't question tie-breakers that are pointed in that direction.

Now, what you can question is posturing, politicking, etc. As an Accounting professional, I am all for advocacy and holding a standard while putting the best foot forward, and to be sure, OU did those things. But when one team goes to a rival's stadium to face a rival that is unbeaten at home and ranked No. 11/12 nationally, and wins by 20 points, then falls in the human polls, the human element has taken a turn that raises a lot of questions.

Tell you what, get on Google and find me the instances in which a ranked team has beaten another ranked team under those same circumstances and then dropped in the polls. It's not unprecedented but it is rare on rare.

Bottom line is this … three teams tied for the Big 12 South championship. Three. That tie is being broken in a manner that best maximizes a system, whether it's flawed or not, that determines college football's highest honor.

Here's to hoping that the process can play out with professionalism and the high road still intact.

BOOMER!!

Rock, Paper, Scissors

Paper beats Rock in Dallas.
Scissors nick Paper in Lubbock.
Rock smashes Scissors in Norman…and keeps on rolling.

Sorry Paper.

ATTENTION NCAA FOOTBALL TEAMS NEEDING A LIFT!

Has your coach run off to another school? Have you suffered a disappointing loss? Or do you just need a happy ending to that Cinderella season? We can help!

YOU can be the next team to experience the uplifting, healing power of defeating "National Powerhouse" Oklahoma University on the national stage in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

We'll win our conference, and that, plus our name and storied tradition, will guarantee you underdog status. Our dull and uninspired play at game-time will make your emotion and intensity shine all the brighter.

Just ask Boise State and West Virginia about the exultation that will be yours! Just as we did for them, we will give YOUR program a memory it will cherish for years!!

The application period begins in September! But start your preparation NOW!
Dial 1 (800) BCS-BUST.

Seriously though: Five ways OU beat themselves

1. Stoops calls destroy momentum. When OU pulled it to 20-15, OU was in control of the game. There was very little up-side to going for two points. And much less to going for the onside kick. That sequence was the back-breaker IMHO. Going for it on 4th down in the first half, in our own territory was questionable, at best.

2. Key missing players: Malcolm Kelly, Auston English (played very little due to flu, leg, etc.), Demarcus Granger, Lendy Holmes, Reggie Smith. This is a huge factor. The late losses of Kelly, and especially Granger's stupidity, had to contribute to the lack of fire we showed in the first half.

3. Penalties. Penalties. Penalties.. OU shot ourselves in the foot over and over and over.

4. Beaten on the edges. Very surprising to see Loadholt getting routinely abused like that. It looked like something was wrong with him. He was bending at waste and reaching all night.

5. Lack of killer instinct. Despite pyss poor play in the first half, OU STILL had the ball three times near or in the red zone, only to emerge with a paltry two field goals.

My last bytch-and-moan comment: I absolutely HATE giving this type of ammunition to the press: four BCS losses in a row. Pardon me while I gnaw my own arm to a nub at the elbow.

How many days till Daytona?

Frank Broyles typical Old Guard attitude

During the Cotton Bowl game he said he thinks all the talk and controversy about who the College Football champion is, is good for College Football. As long as these old geasers are still alive and teaching this out dated bullcrap of a bowl system and the money that these same old gasbags keep raking in we will never have a playoff in Div.1 Football. Just more meaningless bowl game blowouts.

What I don't understand is if these old geasers are so enamored with keeping "the integrity of the bowls", then why are they so quick to sell out by changing the names, locations and dates of the original bowls? Where the heck did the Peach Bowl, Bluebonnett Bowl and the Aloha (Seattle) Bowl go? We now have the Chick-fil-a Bowl, the International Bowl and the Emerald Nutz Bowl.

The bowls that supposedly enhance "tradition" do nothing more than allow ESPN to do something besides covering the World Rock-Paper-Scissors Championship. By that I mean it's all about money-money-money.

Here's an idea "proud sponsors..."

Instead of seeing a fat guy dance in the endzone with his Dr. Pepper 15-20 times per game, how sponsoring that game? I mean, seriously... "Papa Johns .com Bowl?

And many say that NASCAR is 'all about money', they might be, but then again they are in good company with most every other sport as well.

Analysis of "Will OU pass Oregon" in the BCS

Assuming LSU, Oregon and OU win out, will OU pass Oregon.

Well, I went through the BCS numbers in detail and here is what I found (just skip to the end if you want the answer):

As you may or may not know, the BCS ranking is a simple average of the Harris, Coaches/USA Today, and Computer polls. Each of the 3 components is a percentage of points you have to total points available. So, if your team gets every first place vote, you have a 1.0000 for that poll.

Let's start with the human polls first. We have total points and number of first place votes, so need to see how each team is actually getting their votes. I need to make a couple of assumptions here, but I don't think they are that material.

1. LSU and Oregon are ranked in the top 3 by everybody in Harris.
2. LSU is ranked in the top 5 in Coaches by everybody, and Oregon is ranked in the top 4.
3. KU and OU are ranked in the top 5 by everyone in both polls.

That means, in Harris:

LSU has 73 first place, 20 second place, and 19 3rd place votes
Oregon has 22 first, 31 second, 59 third.
OU has 9 first, 30 second, 30 3rd, 42 fourth and 1 fifth
KU has 8 first, 31 second, 4 third, 13 fourth and 56 fifth.

In Coaches:

LSU has 35 first, 17 second, 4 third, 1 fourth, 4 fifth
Oregon has 13 first, 11 second, 26 third, 10 fourth
OU has 4 first, 20 second, 10 third, 10 fourth, 16 fifth
KU has 7 first, 12 second, 6 third, 8 fourth, 27 fifth

Now, lets assume that KU beats Mizzou, OU wins out, and OU beats KU in the Big XII championship game. How would voters now vote? I have assumed the following:

Harris:
1. OU gets all of KU's first place votes.
2. OU gets all of KU's second place votes.
3. Everyone keeps LSU in the same spot in voting.
4. OU gets half of Oregon's second place votes.
5. Oregon keeps all of their first place votes, and their losses on second place votes move to 3rd.
6. The rest of OU's votes are now 3rd (no more 4th or 5ths).

This seems pretty logical, and gives:

LSU: 0.9793
Oregon: 0.9411
OU: 0.9596

So OU ranked #2 in Harris.

For Coaches it is a bit more difficult, and clearly the voting is all over the place, as some coaches may vote to help their team (why not?).

Assumtions for Coaches:

1. LSU keeps it's 1st and 2nd place votes, and the 4ths and 5ths move to 3rd.
2. Oregon keeps all of it votes as it is.
3. OU gets's KU's 1st place votes, keeps it's 2nd place votes, and all 4ths and 5th's become 3rds.

That results in:

LSU: 0.978
Oregon: 0.938
OU: 0.948

So again, OU passes Oregon for #2 in Coaches.

Now to the computers.

LSU is #1 in 4 of the 6, and 2nd in those 2.
Oregon is 2nd in 2, and 3rd in 4
KU is #1 in 2, and has a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a 6th
OU has 3 7ths, 2 9ths, and 1 8th.

Now we need to assume something about other teams. Let's assume that OSU, ASU, WVa, all win out. Also, lets assume that the computers don't allow OU to leap frog any of those teams with a win over KU.

Then,

LSU #1 in all 6
Oregon #2 in 5, and #3 in 1 (behind OSU)
OU gets 3 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, and an 8th.

BCS works out as follows (harris, USA, computers, total average)

LSU 0.9793 0.978 1.000 0.9858
Oregon: 0.9411 0.938 0.9600 0.9464
OU: 0.9596 0.9480 0.8100 0.9059

LSU and Oregon play.

Now, let's assume that OSU, ASU lose, and that OU can jump up to 3rd in all of the computer polls.

We still lose out, with Oregon at 0.9464 and OU at 0.9425.

If; however, OU can get 2 #2s in the computer, and 3 #3s, then it plays out as:

Oregon 0.9430
OU 0.9459

So, in conclusion, it doesn't look like it would happen. But the only real way for it to happen is:

KU wins out until Champ game
OSU loses to Michigan
ASU loss would help as well
The voters really like OU over Oregon, so much so that they change the way they have been voting.

The other dynamic that could happen is Oregon voters switch their votes to LSU. The lead LSU has can't be surpassed by OU without an LSU loss, so voters switching to LSU over Oregon helps as it decreases the lead Oregon has on OU. Lackluster performances by Oregon and great performances by LSU (ugh!) might the the things to root for absent a loss by either.

The only way things could get better is if they announce Oregon as the #2 team first, so they think they're New Orleans bound, and then break their hearts when the rankings are "under review" and have Gordo announce that the ranking has been overturned, OU is #2 and going to the title game! I can always dream!

back to the season finale of Nascar later this week.